As June begins and the transfer portal activity subsides, team rosters for the 2024 season are nearly finalized. Despite a lack of attention since the end of the 2023 season, the Florida Gators’ recent moves in the transfer portal have stirred some optimism, particularly regarding Billy Napier’s squad.
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This optimism is reflected in ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Football Power Index (FPI) offers ratings and projections, such as forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title, and its probability of making the playoff and winning the championship.
While predictable contenders like Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama top the FPI, there are some surprises, including the Florida Gators, who rank 20th with a rating of 10.1. The FPI measures each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad, rating offense, defense, and special teams based on points per game. Thus, the FPI suggests Florida is 10.1 points stronger than the average FBS team. Florida’s offense is rated at 6.7, defense at 3.0, and special teams at 0.3, totaling a 10.1 rating.
Regarding Florida’s FPI rating, ESPN’s Neil Pane notes, “Florida is up from 41st to 20th on the strength of 15 returning starters and a strong showing in the transfer portal.” Despite ranking 20th in the power rankings, the FPI predicts a 6-6 record for the Gators, largely due to their challenging schedule which includes facing the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. Other noteworthy opponents include 3rd ranked Texas, 9th ranked Tennessee, 11th ranked FSU, 13th ranked LSU, 14th ranked Texas A&M, 16th ranked Ole Miss, and 23rd ranked Miami.
The FPI assigns Florida a 58.2% chance of winning at least six games and an 8.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
As the new season approaches, the Florida Gators and their fans have reasons for optimism. The team’s rising FPI ranking, the strength of the returning starters, and the promising transfers provide a solid foundation. The schedule is challenging, but overcoming these hurdles could result in a triumphant season. Time will tell if the Gators can exceed expectations and make their mark on the 2024 college football season.
ESPN explains the FPI as “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” Click here for more of an explanation of the FPI.
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